Wehn people have stopped lining up for RAZR's that's when you know the industry is in trouble. According to ABI research "Motorola's RAZR is no longer the darling of the marketplace and Nokia's E61 and E62 were unable to deliver knockout blows to RIM's BlackBerry devices. Furthermore a number of manufacturers responded to market conditions by cutting handset prices, which pulled down ASPs."
Contrary to what industry experts might think, market success is more likely to come to handsets that "break the mold," like the Apple iPhone.
It is clear that a number of trends are shaping the landscape:
* Emerging markets are starting to make a real impression on handset vendor shipment numbers. Expect handset manufacturers to pay more attention to their needs.
* Manufacturers with a respectable ultra-low-cost handset portfolio will retain their market share while others will see theirs diminish. They will have to decide to specialise, merge, or pull the plug.
* While Nokia's position may seem unassailable, there is hope for other vendors. In the US, Nokia's market share considerably underperforms its global average. Clearly handset vendors can appeal to localized market needs to chip away at Nokia's global dominance.
* Many end-users are getting bored with the same old lineup of handsets, so expect to see more fanfare over handsets that break the mould (e.g. the iPhone).
* Handset manufacturers will continue to bemoan declining ASPs, but declining ASPs have become universal.
* 3G devices shipment numbers will not "wow" anyone in 2007, but they will continue to build momentum.
So the future of mobility lies in the hands of Third World users and style, as usual, wins out over substance.
First read here.
Video coming up.
Of all the Apple iPhone's non-features, it's the lack of 3G that has gotten the most criticism. Based on the ABI report, users will respond more to the beauty and ease of the iPhone's Safari browser rather than the 3G or HSDPA "Internet everywhere all the time" capability.